Volume 3, 2000, Paper 4
Paper 4: Predictive validity in the IELTS test: A study of the
relationship between IELTS scores and students' subsequent academic
performance
Mary Kerstjens and Caryn Nery
This study investigated the relationship between the IELTS test
and academic outcomes. Specifically, it sought to determine
the extent to which the IELTS test predicts the subsequent academic
performance, as well as the language difficulties, of international
students enrolled in an Australian tertiary institution. It
also aims to investigate whether any of the individual tests of
Listening, Reading, Writing and Speaking was critical to academic
success. This was researched in three ways: through
statistical correlations between students' IELTS scores and grade
point average, student questionnaires and staff interviews.
The IELTS scores of 113 first-year international students from
the TAFE and Higher Education sectors of the Faculty of Business of
an Australian university were correlated with their first-semester
grade point average (GPA). In the total sample, significant
correlations were found between the Reading and Writing tests and
GPA (.262, .204 respectively). When Higher Education and TAFE
scores were looked at separately, only the Reading score remained
significant in the TAFE group, the magnitude of the correlation
between the Writing test and GPA (.194) was very similar to that
for the total sample, which was statistically significant.
Regression analysis found a small-to-medium predictive effect of
academics performance from the IELTS scores for the total sample
and the Higher Education group, accounting for 8.4% and 9.1%
respectively, of the variation in academic performance in the total
sample and Higher Education group. IELTS was not found to be
a significant predictor of academic performance for the TAFE
group.
The qualitative data on students' and staff perceptions of the
relationship between English language proficiency and academic
performance corroborate to some extent the statistical findings,
particularly in relation to the Reading, and to a lesser extent,
the Writing tests and the skills they represent. However, while the
Listening test was not significantly correlated to academic
performance, students and staff from both TAFE and Higher Education
highlighted the importance of listening skills in first-semester
study. Both staff and students were generally positive about
students' ability to cope with the language demands of their first
semester of study. Aside from language, staff also saw
sociocultural and psychological factors such as learning and
educational styles, social and cultural adjustments, motivation and
maturity, financial and family pressures to have an influence on
the academic outcomes of international students in their first
semester of study.
